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Varea vs La Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Varea
Varea
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
La Calzada
La Calzada
5/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 33Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Varea55%
×Draw23%
La Calzada22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
1.81
La Calzada
1.06

Varea creates 71% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 108 away

creates per match

Varea
2.15
La Calzada
1.19

allows per match

Varea
0.93
La Calzada
1.47

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
La Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

La Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Varea or draw
78%
Varea or La Calzada
77%
Draw or La Calzada
45%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
31%
La Calzada wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
84%
Varea 2+ goals
54%
Varea 3+ goals
27%
La Calzada 1+ goals
65%
La Calzada 2+ goals
29%
La Calzada 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
71%
La Calzada (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

La Calzada away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + La Calzada defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.81

La Calzada attack 1.19 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Varea scores more
55%
level
23%
La Calzada scores more
22%

Varea at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Varea 2–0 La Calzada

Varea beat La Calzada 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.