La Calzada 1–2 Varea: Result & Stats

La Calzada

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Varea

2/22/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 23Estadio El Rollo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

La Calzada32%

×Draw26%

Varea42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La CalzadaExpected goals in this matchVarea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.46

La Calzada

1.23

Varea

1.46

Varea creates 19% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 108 away

1.48

creates per match

1.81

1.10

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

La Calzada

1.48

Varea

1.81

allows per match

La Calzada

1.10

Varea

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Calzada+0.00on par

Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Calzada ↓

Varea →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

La Calzada or draw

58%

La Calzada or Varea

74%

Draw or Varea

68%

Winning margin

La Calzada wins by 2+

13%

Varea wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

La Calzada 1+ goals

71%

La Calzada 2+ goals

35%

La Calzada 3+ goals

13%

Varea 1+ goals

77%

Varea 2+ goals

43%

Varea 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

La Calzada (draw refunded)

43%

Varea (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Calzada at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 108 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Calzada attack 1.48 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Varea attack 1.81 + La Calzada defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

La Calzada scores more

32%

level

26%

Varea scores more

42%

Varea at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff