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Varea vs La Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Varea
Varea
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
La Calzada
La Calzada
5/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Varea26%
×Draw30%
La Calzada44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
0.86
La Calzada
1.20

La Calzada creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Varea
1.40
La Calzada
1.00

allows per match

Varea
1.40
La Calzada
0.33

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
La Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

La Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Varea or draw
56%
Varea or La Calzada
70%
Draw or La Calzada
74%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
9%
La Calzada wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
58%
Varea 2+ goals
21%
Varea 3+ goals
6%
La Calzada 1+ goals
70%
La Calzada 2+ goals
34%
La Calzada 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
38%
La Calzada (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

La Calzada away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 1.40 + La Calzada defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.86

La Calzada attack 1.00 + Varea defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Varea scores more
26%
level
30%
La Calzada scores more
44%

La Calzada at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Varea 0–2 La Calzada

La Calzada beat Varea 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.