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Varea vs Calahorra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Varea
Varea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Calahorra
Calahorra
3/29/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 28Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Varea39%
×Draw24%
Calahorra37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
1.60
Calahorra
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 18 away

creates per match

Varea
2.15
Calahorra
2.17

allows per match

Varea
0.93
Calahorra
1.06

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Calahorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Varea or draw
63%
Varea or Calahorra
76%
Draw or Calahorra
61%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
19%
Calahorra wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
80%
Varea 2+ goals
47%
Varea 3+ goals
22%
Calahorra 1+ goals
79%
Calahorra 2+ goals
46%
Calahorra 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
51%
Calahorra (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Calahorra away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + Calahorra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.60

Calahorra attack 2.17 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Varea scores more
39%
level
24%
Calahorra scores more
37%

Varea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varea vs Calahorra

Varea and Calahorra drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.