Calahorra 1–1 Varea: Result & Stats

Calahorra

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Varea

11/16/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 11Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Calahorra51%

×Draw23%

Varea25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalahorraExpected goals in this matchVarea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.19

Calahorra

1.79

Varea

1.19

Calahorra creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 108 away

2.61

creates per match

1.81

0.56

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Calahorra

2.61

Varea

1.81

allows per match

Calahorra

0.56

Varea

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par

Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Varea →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw

75%

Calahorra or Varea

77%

Draw or Varea

49%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+

28%

Varea wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals

83%

Calahorra 2+ goals

53%

Calahorra 3+ goals

26%

Varea 1+ goals

70%

Varea 2+ goals

33%

Varea 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)

67%

Varea (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 2.61 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.79

Varea attack 1.81 + Calahorra defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Calahorra scores more

51%

level

23%

Varea scores more

25%

Calahorra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff