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Varea vs Autol — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Varea
Varea
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Autol
Autol
9/19/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 3Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Varea75%
×Draw16%
Autol9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
2.45
Autol
0.72

Varea creates 240% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 34 away

creates per match

Varea
2.15
Autol
0.50

allows per match

Varea
0.93
Autol
2.74

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
Autol+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Autol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Varea or draw
91%
Varea or Autol
84%
Draw or Autol
25%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
52%
Autol wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
91%
Varea 2+ goals
70%
Varea 3+ goals
44%
Autol 1+ goals
51%
Autol 2+ goals
16%
Autol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
89%
Autol (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Autol away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + Autol defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.45

Autol attack 0.50 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Varea scores more
75%
level
16%
Autol scores more
9%

Varea at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Varea 3 – 2 Autol

Varea beat Autol 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.