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Autol vs Varea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Autol
Autol
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Varea
Varea
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 32Estadio La Manzanera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Autol23%
×Draw25%
Varea52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Autol
0.93
Varea
1.56

Varea creates 68% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 108 away

creates per match

Autol
0.88
Varea
1.81

allows per match

Autol
1.32
Varea
0.97

finishing

Autol+0.00on par
Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Autol ↓

Varea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Autol or draw
48%
Autol or Varea
75%
Draw or Varea
77%

Winning margin

Autol wins by 2+
8%
Varea wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Autol 1+ goals
61%
Autol 2+ goals
24%
Autol 3+ goals
7%
Varea 1+ goals
79%
Varea 2+ goals
46%
Varea 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Autol (draw refunded)
30%
Varea (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Autol at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Autol attack 0.88 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Varea attack 1.81 + Autol defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Autol scores more
23%
level
25%
Varea scores more
52%

Varea at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Autol vs Varea

Autol and Varea drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Manzanera in Autol.