Varde IF Elite 3–3 Kolding B: Result & Stats

Varde IF Elite

FT

3 – 3

Kolding B

9/19/2020

League #126 · Group 3 - 6Sydbank Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Varde IF Elite45%

×Draw18%

Kolding B37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varde IF EliteExpected goals in this matchKolding B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

2.75

Varde IF Elite

3.00

Kolding B

2.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

2.75

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Varde IF Elite

3.00

Kolding B

2.75

allows per match

Varde IF Elite

2.75

Kolding B

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varde IF Elite+0.00on par

Kolding B+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes89
No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varde IF Elite ↓

Kolding B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–44%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

66%34%

Double chance

Varde IF Elite or draw

63%

Varde IF Elite or Kolding B

82%

Draw or Kolding B

55%

Winning margin

Varde IF Elite wins by 2+

28%

Kolding B wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Varde IF Elite 1+ goals

95%

Varde IF Elite 2+ goals

79%

Varde IF Elite 3+ goals

56%

Kolding B 1+ goals

93%

Kolding B 2+ goals

75%

Kolding B 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Varde IF Elite (draw refunded)

55%

Kolding B (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varde IF Elite at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Kolding B away — creates 2.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varde IF Elite attack 3.00 + Kolding B defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Kolding B attack 2.75 + Varde IF Elite defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Varde IF Elite scores more

45%

level

18%

Kolding B scores more

37%

Varde IF Elite at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Varde IF Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff