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Kolding B vs Varde IF Elite — League #126 2026

Kolding B
Kolding B
FT
1 – 1
Varde IF Elite
Varde IF Elite
10/6/2018League #126League #126 · Round 10Mosevej Sportsplads

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kolding B23%
×Draw21%
Varde IF Elite56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolding B
1.33
Varde IF Elite
2.17

Varde IF Elite creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kolding B
1.33
Varde IF Elite
2.17

allows per match

Kolding B
2.17
Varde IF Elite
1.33

finishing

Kolding B+0.00on par
Varde IF Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolding B ↓

Varde IF Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kolding B or draw
44%
Kolding B or Varde IF Elite
79%
Draw or Varde IF Elite
77%

Winning margin

Kolding B wins by 2+
10%
Varde IF Elite wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Kolding B 1+ goals
74%
Kolding B 2+ goals
38%
Kolding B 3+ goals
15%
Varde IF Elite 1+ goals
89%
Varde IF Elite 2+ goals
64%
Varde IF Elite 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Kolding B (draw refunded)
29%
Varde IF Elite (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolding B at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Varde IF Elite away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolding B attack 1.33 + Varde IF Elite defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Varde IF Elite attack 2.17 + Kolding B defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kolding B scores more
23%
level
21%
Varde IF Elite scores more
56%

Varde IF Elite at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Varde IF Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #126: Kolding B 1–1 Varde IF Elite

Kolding B and Varde IF Elite drew 1-1 in League #126 on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Mosevej Sportsplads in Kolding.