Vardar Skopje 6–1 Shkupi 1927: Result & Stats

Vardar Skopje

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Shkupi 1927

11/30/2025

First League · Round 15Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Vardar Skopje49%

×Draw25%

Shkupi 192726%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar SkopjeExpected goals in this matchShkupi 1927

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.08

Vardar Skopje

1.57

Shkupi 1927

1.08

Vardar Skopje creates 45% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 106 away

1.56

creates per match

1.04

1.13

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Vardar Skopje

1.56

Shkupi 1927

1.04

allows per match

Vardar Skopje

1.13

Shkupi 1927

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Shkupi 1927 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw

74%

Vardar Skopje or Shkupi 1927

75%

Draw or Shkupi 1927

51%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

25%

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

79%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

46%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

21%

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals

66%

Shkupi 1927 2+ goals

29%

Shkupi 1927 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

65%

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Shkupi 1927 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.56 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.57

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.04 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more

49%

level

25%

Shkupi 1927 scores more

26%

Vardar Skopje at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff