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Shkupi 1927 vs Vardar Skopje — First League 2019

Shkupi 1927
Shkupi 1927
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
8/29/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Blagoj Istatov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Shkupi 192743%
×Draw26%
Vardar Skopje31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkupi 1927
1.42
Vardar Skopje
1.15

Shkupi 1927 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 78 away

creates per match

Shkupi 1927
1.71
Vardar Skopje
1.14

allows per match

Shkupi 1927
1.17
Vardar Skopje
1.13

finishing

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkupi 1927 ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shkupi 1927 or draw
69%
Shkupi 1927 or Vardar Skopje
74%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
57%

Winning margin

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+
21%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals
76%
Shkupi 1927 2+ goals
41%
Shkupi 1927 3+ goals
17%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
68%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
32%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)
59%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkupi 1927 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.71 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shkupi 1927 scores more
43%
level
26%
Vardar Skopje scores more
31%

Shkupi 1927 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shkupi 1927 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shkupi 1927 2–4 Vardar Skopje

Vardar Skopje beat Shkupi 1927 4-2 in First League on August 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Blagoj Istatov in Strumica.