Vardar Skopje 3–3 Renova: Result & Stats

Vardar Skopje

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Renova

F. Petkovski 40'

D. Abdula 13' (OG)

M. Mirchevski 6'

S. Shefiti 90'

B. Velija 42'

R. Selmani 28'

10/25/2020

First League · Round 10Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vardar Skopje46%

×Draw26%

Renova29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar SkopjeExpected goals in this matchRenova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.13

Vardar Skopje

1.50

Renova

1.13

Vardar Skopje creates 33% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 44 away

1.56

creates per match

1.14

1.13

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Vardar Skopje

1.56

Renova

1.14

allows per match

Vardar Skopje

1.13

Renova

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Renova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw

71%

Vardar Skopje or Renova

74%

Draw or Renova

54%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

23%

Renova wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

78%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

44%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

19%

Renova 1+ goals

68%

Renova 2+ goals

31%

Renova 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

62%

Renova (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Renova away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.56 + Renova defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Renova attack 1.14 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more

46%

level

26%

Renova scores more

29%

Vardar Skopje at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Mirchevski

13'

D. AbdulaOwn goal

28'

R. Selmani

30'

M. Velichkovic

40'

41'

42'

46'

46'

A. Jasharovski← S. Muharem

50'

A. Gjurkovski← M. Radulovikj-Velichkovikj

56'

J. Selmani← A. Veliu

60'

S. Shefiti

70'

E. Ramadani← B. Sadiki

75'

D. Blazhevski← M. Mirchevski

76'

S. Lazarevic

78'

F. Stojchevski← A. Gavazaj

83'

E. Partalko← F. Petkovski

90'

S. Shefiti

Vardar

Renova

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mirchevsk

Lazarevik

⚽

▼

Petkovski

Manager: A. Vasoski

50'▲A. Gjurkovski←▼M. Radulovikj-Velichkovikj

75'▲D. Blazhevski←▼M. Mirchevski

83'▲E. Partalko←▼F. Petkovski

Vardar Skopje substitutes

GjurkovskiBlazhevskiPartalko

Manager: B. Islami

46'▲A. Jasharovski←▼S. Muharem

56'▲J. Selmani←▼A. Veliu

70'▲E. Ramadani←▼B. Sadiki

78'▲F. Stojchevski←▼A. Gavazaj

Renova substitutes

JasharovskiSelmaniRamadaniStojchevski

First League: Vardar Skopje 3–3 Renova

Vardar Skopje and Renova drew 3-3 in First League on October 25, 2020.

Goals: M. Mirchevski (6'), D. Abdula (13' o.g.), R. Selmani (28'), F. Petkovski (40'), B. Velija (42'), S. Shefiti (90').

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.

Vardar Skopje vs Renova — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Vardar Skopje 3–3 Renova