Vardar Skopje 2–0 Renova: Result & Stats

Vardar Skopje

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Renova

J. Popzlatanov 90'

D. Avramovski 20'

11/3/2019

First League · Round 13Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Vardar Skopje49%

×Draw25%

Renova26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar SkopjeExpected goals in this matchRenova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.10

Vardar Skopje

1.60

Renova

1.10

Vardar Skopje creates 45% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 46 away

1.71

creates per match

1.15

1.06

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Vardar Skopje

1.71

Renova

1.15

allows per match

Vardar Skopje

1.06

Renova

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Renova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw

74%

Vardar Skopje or Renova

75%

Draw or Renova

51%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

25%

Renova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

80%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

47%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

22%

Renova 1+ goals

67%

Renova 2+ goals

30%

Renova 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

65%

Renova (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

Renova away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.71 + Renova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Renova attack 1.15 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more

49%

level

25%

Renova scores more

26%

Vardar Skopje at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

D. Avramovski

70'

A. Sefo← B. Miovski

79'

D. Velkovski← Juninho

86'

A. Veliu← B. Velija

90+2'

L. Ignatov← M. Cvetanoski

90+2'

B. Dimoski← J. Popzlatanov

90'

J. Popzlatanov

Vardar

Renova

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Vasoski

79'▲D. Velkovski←▼Juninho

90+2'▲L. Ignatov←▼M. Cvetanoski

90+2'▲B. Dimoski←▼J. Popzlatanov

Vardar Skopje substitutes

VelkovskiIgnatovDimoski

Manager: B. Islami

70'▲A. Sefo←▼B. Miovski

86'▲A. Veliu←▼B. Velija

Renova substitutes

SefoVeliu

First League: Vardar Skopje 2–0 Renova

Vardar Skopje beat Renova 2-0 in First League on November 3, 2019.

Goals: D. Avramovski (20'), J. Popzlatanov (90').

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.

Vardar Skopje vs Renova — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Vardar Skopje 2–0 Renova