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Vardar Skopje vs Pobeda — First League 2019

Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
FT
6 – 0
Pobeda
Pobeda
5/19/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 35Stadion Boris Trajkovski (Skopje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vardar Skopje70%
×Draw18%
Pobeda12%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Skopje
2.25
Pobeda
0.79

Vardar Skopje creates 185% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 27 away

creates per match

Vardar Skopje
1.71
Pobeda
0.52

allows per match

Vardar Skopje
1.06
Pobeda
2.78

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par
Pobeda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Pobeda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw
88%
Vardar Skopje or Pobeda
82%
Draw or Pobeda
30%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
46%
Pobeda wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
89%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
65%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
39%
Pobeda 1+ goals
55%
Pobeda 2+ goals
19%
Pobeda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
86%
Pobeda (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

Pobeda away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.71 + Pobeda defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.25

Pobeda attack 0.52 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more
70%
level
18%
Pobeda scores more
12%

Vardar Skopje at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Vardar Skopje 6–0 Pobeda

Vardar Skopje beat Pobeda 6-0 in First League on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Boris Trajkovski (Skopje).