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Pobeda vs Vardar Skopje — First League 2019

Pobeda
Pobeda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
4/3/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Stadion Biljanini Izvori (Ohrid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Pobeda23%
×Draw26%
Vardar Skopje51%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobeda
0.91
Vardar Skopje
1.52

Vardar Skopje creates 67% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 84 away

creates per match

Pobeda
0.70
Vardar Skopje
1.10

allows per match

Pobeda
1.93
Vardar Skopje
1.11

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw
49%
Pobeda or Vardar Skopje
74%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
77%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+
8%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals
60%
Pobeda 2+ goals
23%
Pobeda 3+ goals
6%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
78%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
45%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)
31%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.93 · 27 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.11 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 0.70 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.91

Vardar Skopje attack 1.10 + Pobeda defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pobeda scores more
23%
level
26%
Vardar Skopje scores more
51%

Vardar Skopje at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pobeda 0–0 Vardar Skopje

Pobeda and Vardar Skopje drew 0-0 in First League on April 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori (Ohrid).