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Vardar Skopje vs Makedonija GjP — First League 2019

Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjP
5/4/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Stadion Boris Trajkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Vardar Skopje48%
×Draw25%
Makedonija GjP27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Skopje
1.60
Makedonija GjP
1.13

Vardar Skopje creates 42% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 94 away

creates per match

Vardar Skopje
1.56
Makedonija GjP
1.14

allows per match

Vardar Skopje
1.13
Makedonija GjP
1.65

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par
Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Makedonija GjP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw
73%
Vardar Skopje or Makedonija GjP
75%
Draw or Makedonija GjP
52%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
25%
Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
80%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
47%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
22%
Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
68%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
31%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
64%
Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.56 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Makedonija GjP attack 1.14 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more
48%
level
25%
Makedonija GjP scores more
27%

Vardar Skopje at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Vardar Skopje 1–0 Makedonija GjP

Vardar Skopje beat Makedonija GjP 1-0 in First League on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Boris Trajkovski in Skopje.