Makedonija GjP 0–1 Vardar Skopje: Result & Stats

Makedonija GjP

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vardar Skopje

12/2/2023

First League · Round 17Stadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Makedonija GjP40%

×Draw28%

Vardar Skopje32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Makedonija GjPExpected goals in this matchVardar Skopje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Makedonija GjP

1.25

Vardar Skopje

1.08

Makedonija GjP creates 16% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 78 away

1.36

creates per match

1.14

1.03

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Makedonija GjP

1.36

Vardar Skopje

1.14

allows per match

Makedonija GjP

1.03

Vardar Skopje

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonija GjP ↓

Vardar Skopje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Makedonija GjP or draw

68%

Makedonija GjP or Vardar Skopje

72%

Draw or Vardar Skopje

60%

Winning margin

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

18%

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

71%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

36%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

13%

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

66%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

29%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

56%

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonija GjP at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonija GjP attack 1.36 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Makedonija GjP scores more

40%

level

28%

Vardar Skopje scores more

32%

Makedonija GjP at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Makedonija GjP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff