Vardar Skopje 0–0 Besa Dobërdoll: Result & Stats

Vardar Skopje

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Besa Dobërdoll

3/1/2025

First League · Round 21Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vardar Skopje53%

×Draw24%

Besa Dobërdoll22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar SkopjeExpected goals in this matchBesa Dobërdoll

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.97

Vardar Skopje

1.66

Besa Dobërdoll

0.97

Vardar Skopje creates 71% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

1.56

creates per match

0.82

1.13

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Vardar Skopje

1.56

Besa Dobërdoll

0.82

allows per match

Vardar Skopje

1.13

Besa Dobërdoll

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw

78%

Vardar Skopje or Besa Dobërdoll

76%

Draw or Besa Dobërdoll

47%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

29%

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

81%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

49%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

23%

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals

62%

Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals

25%

Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

71%

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.56 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.66

Besa Dobërdoll attack 0.82 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more

53%

level

24%

Besa Dobërdoll scores more

22%

Vardar Skopje at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff