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Besa Dobërdoll vs Vardar Skopje — Second League 2019

Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
4/8/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 23Stadion Vrapčište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll48%
×Draw26%
Vardar Skopje26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Dobërdoll
1.52
Vardar Skopje
1.05

Besa Dobërdoll creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll
2.17
Vardar Skopje
1.60

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll
0.50
Vardar Skopje
0.87

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw
74%
Besa Dobërdoll or Vardar Skopje
74%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
52%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
24%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
78%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
45%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
20%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
65%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
28%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
65%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 30 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 2.17 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vardar Skopje attack 1.60 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more
48%
level
26%
Vardar Skopje scores more
26%

Besa Dobërdoll at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Besa Dobërdoll 2–1 Vardar Skopje

Besa Dobërdoll beat Vardar Skopje 2-1 in Second League on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vrapčište in Vrapchishte.