Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vardar Skopje vs Besa Dobërdoll — Second League 2019

Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
10/16/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Stadion Železarnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vardar Skopje46%
×Draw26%
Besa Dobërdoll28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Skopje
1.45
Besa Dobërdoll
1.07

Vardar Skopje creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Vardar Skopje
2.07
Besa Dobërdoll
1.67

allows per match

Vardar Skopje
0.47
Besa Dobërdoll
0.83

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw
72%
Vardar Skopje or Besa Dobërdoll
74%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
54%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
22%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
77%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
42%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
18%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
66%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
29%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
62%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 2.07 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.67 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more
46%
level
26%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
28%

Vardar Skopje at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Vardar Skopje 1–0 Besa Dobërdoll

Vardar Skopje beat Besa Dobërdoll 1-0 in Second League on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Železarnica in Skopje.