Vardar Skopje 3–1 Belasica: Result & Stats

Vardar Skopje

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Belasica

F. Petkovski 79'

M. Petrovikj 17'

M. Mirchevski 6'

Robson 56'

9/27/2020

First League · Round 7Trening centar Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vardar Skopje55%

×Draw24%

Belasica22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar SkopjeExpected goals in this matchBelasica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.00

Vardar Skopje

1.75

Belasica

1.00

Vardar Skopje creates 75% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 20 away

1.71

creates per match

0.95

1.06

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Vardar Skopje

1.71

Belasica

0.95

allows per match

Vardar Skopje

1.06

Belasica

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Belasica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Belasica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw

78%

Vardar Skopje or Belasica

76%

Draw or Belasica

45%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

31%

Belasica wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

83%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

52%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

25%

Belasica 1+ goals

63%

Belasica 2+ goals

26%

Belasica 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

72%

Belasica (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

Belasica away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.71 + Belasica defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Belasica attack 0.95 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more

55%

level

24%

Belasica scores more

22%

Vardar Skopje at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Mirchevski

17'

M. Petrovikj

46'

D. Kalpachki← S. Sulev

46'

Z. Ivanovski← R. Mitev

49'

55'

56'

Robson

73'

74'

Z. Mitevski← F. Mihailov

77'

F. Petkovski← B. Najdenov

77'

M. Martinaga← M. Mirchevski

77'

B. Istatov← D. Razmoski

79'

F. Petkovski

84'

B. Kolevski← M. Radulovikj-Velichkovikj

90+3'

D. Velkovski← J. Popzlatanov

Vardar

Belasica

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Mirchevsk

Lazarevik

Cvetanosk

Manager: A. Vasoski

77'▲F. Petkovski←▼B. Najdenov

77'▲M. Martinaga←▼M. Mirchevski

84'▲B. Kolevski←▼M. Radulovikj-Velichkovikj

90+3'▲D. Velkovski←▼J. Popzlatanov

Vardar Skopje substitutes

PetkovskiMartinagaKolevskiVelkovski

Manager: S. Arifovski

46'▲D. Kalpachki←▼S. Sulev

46'▲Z. Ivanovski←▼R. Mitev

74'▲Z. Mitevski←▼F. Mihailov

77'▲B. Istatov←▼D. Razmoski

Belasica substitutes

KalpachkiIvanovskiMitevskiIstatov