Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Belasica vs Vardar Skopje — Second League 2019

Belasica
Belasica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
4/29/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 27Stadion Kukuš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Belasica35%
×Draw27%
Vardar Skopje37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasica
1.22
Vardar Skopje
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 16 away

creates per match

Belasica
1.63
Vardar Skopje
1.69

allows per match

Belasica
0.84
Vardar Skopje
0.81

finishing

Belasica+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasica ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Belasica or draw
63%
Belasica or Vardar Skopje
73%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
65%

Winning margin

Belasica wins by 2+
15%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Belasica 1+ goals
70%
Belasica 2+ goals
34%
Belasica 3+ goals
12%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
72%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
36%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Belasica (draw refunded)
49%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasica at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasica attack 1.63 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.22

Vardar Skopje attack 1.69 + Belasica defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Belasica scores more
35%
level
27%
Vardar Skopje scores more
37%

Vardar Skopje at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Belasica 0–1 Vardar Skopje

Vardar Skopje beat Belasica 1-0 in Second League on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kukuš in Turnovo.