Vardar Skopje 1–0 Bashkimi Kumanovo: Result & Stats

Vardar Skopje

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bashkimi Kumanovo

2/21/2026

First League · Round 19Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vardar Skopje46%

×Draw25%

Bashkimi Kumanovo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar SkopjeExpected goals in this matchBashkimi Kumanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.15

Vardar Skopje

1.54

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.15

Vardar Skopje creates 34% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

1.56

creates per match

1.18

1.13

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Vardar Skopje

1.56

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.18

allows per match

Vardar Skopje

1.13

Bashkimi Kumanovo

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Bashkimi Kumanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw

72%

Vardar Skopje or Bashkimi Kumanovo

75%

Draw or Bashkimi Kumanovo

54%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

23%

Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

79%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

45%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

20%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals

68%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals

32%

Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

62%

Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.56 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 1.18 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more

46%

level

25%

Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more

28%

Vardar Skopje at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff