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Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Vardar Skopje — First League 2019

Bashkimi Kumanovo
Bashkimi Kumanovo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
9/29/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Stadion FK Bashkimi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo32%
×Draw26%
Vardar Skopje41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.21
Vardar Skopje
1.40

Vardar Skopje creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

creates per match

Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.29
Vardar Skopje
1.14

allows per match

Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.65
Vardar Skopje
1.13

finishing

Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bashkimi Kumanovo ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bashkimi Kumanovo or draw
59%
Bashkimi Kumanovo or Vardar Skopje
74%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
68%

Winning margin

Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+
14%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals
70%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals
34%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals
12%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
75%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
41%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)
44%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bashkimi Kumanovo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 1.29 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more
32%
level
26%
Vardar Skopje scores more
41%

Vardar Skopje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Bashkimi Kumanovo 0–0 Vardar Skopje

Bashkimi Kumanovo and Vardar Skopje drew 0-0 in First League on September 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Bashkimi in Kumanovo.