Vardar Negotino 0–2 Skopje: Result & Stats

Vardar Negotino

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Skopje

3/28/2026

Second League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vardar Negotino31%

×Draw28%

Skopje41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar NegotinoExpected goals in this matchSkopje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.29

Vardar Negotino

1.08

Skopje

1.29

Skopje creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 66 away

1.11

creates per match

1.15

1.44

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Vardar Negotino

1.11

Skopje

1.15

allows per match

Vardar Negotino

1.44

Skopje

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Negotino ↓

Skopje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vardar Negotino or draw

59%

Vardar Negotino or Skopje

72%

Draw or Skopje

69%

Winning margin

Vardar Negotino wins by 2+

12%

Skopje wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vardar Negotino 1+ goals

66%

Vardar Negotino 2+ goals

29%

Vardar Negotino 3+ goals

10%

Skopje 1+ goals

72%

Skopje 2+ goals

37%

Skopje 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)

43%

Skopje (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Negotino at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Skopje away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Negotino attack 1.11 + Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Skopje attack 1.15 + Vardar Negotino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vardar Negotino scores more

31%

level

28%

Skopje scores more

41%

Skopje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff