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Skopje vs Vardar Negotino — Second League 2019

Skopje
Skopje
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vardar Negotino
Vardar Negotino
9/1/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 3Stadion Železarnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Skopje66%
×Draw19%
Vardar Negotino15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skopje
2.25
Vardar Negotino
0.97

Skopje creates 132% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 45 away

creates per match

Skopje
1.89
Vardar Negotino
1.24

allows per match

Skopje
0.70
Vardar Negotino
2.60

finishing

Skopje+0.00on par
Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skopje ↓

Vardar Negotino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Skopje or draw
85%
Skopje or Vardar Negotino
81%
Draw or Vardar Negotino
34%

Winning margin

Skopje wins by 2+
43%
Vardar Negotino wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Skopje 1+ goals
89%
Skopje 2+ goals
65%
Skopje 3+ goals
39%
Vardar Negotino 1+ goals
62%
Vardar Negotino 2+ goals
25%
Vardar Negotino 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Skopje (draw refunded)
81%
Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skopje at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.70 · 66 matches

Vardar Negotino away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skopje attack 1.89 + Vardar Negotino defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.25

Vardar Negotino attack 1.24 + Skopje defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Skopje scores more
66%
level
19%
Vardar Negotino scores more
15%

Skopje at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Skopje 2–1 Vardar Negotino

Skopje beat Vardar Negotino 2-1 in Second League on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Železarnica in Skopje.