Vardar Negotino 1–8 Sasa: Result & Stats

Vardar Negotino

FT

1 – 8

HT: 1 – 3

Sasa

9/13/2025

Second League · Round 4Cvaj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vardar Negotino39%

×Draw26%

Sasa36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar NegotinoExpected goals in this matchSasa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.35

Vardar Negotino

1.41

Sasa

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 82 away

1.11

creates per match

1.26

1.44

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Vardar Negotino

1.11

Sasa

1.26

allows per match

Vardar Negotino

1.44

Sasa

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Sasa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Negotino ↓

Sasa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vardar Negotino or draw

64%

Vardar Negotino or Sasa

74%

Draw or Sasa

61%

Winning margin

Vardar Negotino wins by 2+

18%

Sasa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vardar Negotino 1+ goals

76%

Vardar Negotino 2+ goals

41%

Vardar Negotino 3+ goals

17%

Sasa 1+ goals

74%

Sasa 2+ goals

39%

Sasa 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)

52%

Sasa (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Negotino at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Sasa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Negotino attack 1.11 + Sasa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sasa attack 1.26 + Vardar Negotino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vardar Negotino scores more

39%

level

26%

Sasa scores more

36%

Vardar Negotino at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vardar Negotino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff