Sasa 1–0 Vardar Negotino: Result & Stats

Sasa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vardar Negotino

3/7/2026

Second League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sasa54%

×Draw21%

Vardar Negotino25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SasaExpected goals in this matchVardar Negotino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.32

Sasa

2.04

Vardar Negotino

1.32

Sasa creates 55% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 45 away

1.48

creates per match

1.24

1.41

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Sasa

1.48

Vardar Negotino

1.24

allows per match

Sasa

1.41

Vardar Negotino

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sasa+0.00on par

Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sasa ↓

Vardar Negotino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sasa or draw

75%

Sasa or Vardar Negotino

79%

Draw or Vardar Negotino

46%

Winning margin

Sasa wins by 2+

32%

Vardar Negotino wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sasa 1+ goals

87%

Sasa 2+ goals

60%

Sasa 3+ goals

33%

Vardar Negotino 1+ goals

73%

Vardar Negotino 2+ goals

38%

Vardar Negotino 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sasa (draw refunded)

69%

Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sasa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Vardar Negotino away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sasa attack 1.48 + Vardar Negotino defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.04

Vardar Negotino attack 1.24 + Sasa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sasa scores more

54%

level

21%

Vardar Negotino scores more

25%

Sasa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff