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Vardar Negotino vs Ohrid — Second League 2019

Vardar Negotino
Vardar Negotino
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ohrid
Ohrid
3/5/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 19Cvaj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vardar Negotino36%
×Draw28%
Ohrid36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Negotino
1.19
Ohrid
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 80 away

creates per match

Vardar Negotino
1.11
Ohrid
0.93

allows per match

Vardar Negotino
1.44
Ohrid
1.26

finishing

Vardar Negotino+0.00on par
Ohrid+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Negotino ↓

Ohrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vardar Negotino or draw
64%
Vardar Negotino or Ohrid
72%
Draw or Ohrid
64%

Winning margin

Vardar Negotino wins by 2+
15%
Ohrid wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vardar Negotino 1+ goals
70%
Vardar Negotino 2+ goals
33%
Vardar Negotino 3+ goals
12%
Ohrid 1+ goals
70%
Ohrid 2+ goals
33%
Ohrid 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)
50%
Ohrid (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Negotino at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Ohrid away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Negotino attack 1.11 + Ohrid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ohrid attack 0.93 + Vardar Negotino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vardar Negotino scores more
36%
level
28%
Ohrid scores more
36%

Vardar Negotino at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vardar Negotino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Vardar Negotino 0–1 Ohrid

Ohrid beat Vardar Negotino 1-0 in Second League on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Cvaj Arena in Negotino.