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Ohrid vs Vardar Negotino — Second League 2019

Ohrid
Ohrid
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vardar Negotino
Vardar Negotino
3/21/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ohrid64%
×Draw20%
Vardar Negotino17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohrid
2.20
Vardar Negotino
1.02

Ohrid creates 116% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ohrid
1.79
Vardar Negotino
1.24

allows per match

Ohrid
0.79
Vardar Negotino
2.60

finishing

Ohrid+0.00on par
Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohrid ↓

Vardar Negotino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ohrid or draw
83%
Ohrid or Vardar Negotino
80%
Draw or Vardar Negotino
36%

Winning margin

Ohrid wins by 2+
41%
Vardar Negotino wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ohrid 1+ goals
89%
Ohrid 2+ goals
64%
Ohrid 3+ goals
37%
Vardar Negotino 1+ goals
64%
Vardar Negotino 2+ goals
27%
Vardar Negotino 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ohrid (draw refunded)
79%
Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohrid at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

Vardar Negotino away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohrid attack 1.79 + Vardar Negotino defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Vardar Negotino attack 1.24 + Ohrid defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ohrid scores more
64%
level
20%
Vardar Negotino scores more
17%

Ohrid at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ohrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Ohrid 4–0 Vardar Negotino

Ohrid beat Vardar Negotino 4-0 in Second League on March 21, 2026.