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Vardar Negotino vs Kozuv Gevgelija — Second League 2019

Vardar Negotino
Vardar Negotino
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
3/8/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Cvaj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vardar Negotino37%
×Draw28%
Kozuv Gevgelija35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Negotino
1.21
Kozuv Gevgelija
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 81 away

creates per match

Vardar Negotino
1.11
Kozuv Gevgelija
0.89

allows per match

Vardar Negotino
1.44
Kozuv Gevgelija
1.30

finishing

Vardar Negotino+0.00on par
Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Negotino ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vardar Negotino or draw
65%
Vardar Negotino or Kozuv Gevgelija
72%
Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija
63%

Winning margin

Vardar Negotino wins by 2+
16%
Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vardar Negotino 1+ goals
70%
Vardar Negotino 2+ goals
34%
Vardar Negotino 3+ goals
12%
Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
69%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
33%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)
51%
Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Negotino at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Negotino attack 1.11 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + Vardar Negotino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vardar Negotino scores more
37%
level
28%
Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
35%

Vardar Negotino at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vardar Negotino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vardar Negotino vs Kozuv Gevgelija

Kozuv Gevgelija beat Vardar Negotino 2-0 in Second League on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Cvaj Arena in Negotino.