Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kozuv Gevgelija vs Vardar Negotino — Second League 2019

Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vardar Negotino
Vardar Negotino
2/24/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Stadion FK Kožuf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kozuv Gevgelija60%
×Draw20%
Vardar Negotino20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozuv Gevgelija
2.16
Vardar Negotino
1.16

Kozuv Gevgelija creates 86% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.71
Vardar Negotino
1.24

allows per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.07
Vardar Negotino
2.60

finishing

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par
Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozuv Gevgelija ↓

Vardar Negotino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kozuv Gevgelija or draw
80%
Kozuv Gevgelija or Vardar Negotino
80%
Draw or Vardar Negotino
40%

Winning margin

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
37%
Vardar Negotino wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
88%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
63%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
36%
Vardar Negotino 1+ goals
69%
Vardar Negotino 2+ goals
32%
Vardar Negotino 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
75%
Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozuv Gevgelija at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Vardar Negotino away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 1.71 + Vardar Negotino defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.16

Vardar Negotino attack 1.24 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
60%
level
20%
Vardar Negotino scores more
20%

Kozuv Gevgelija at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kozuv Gevgelija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Kozuv Gevgelija 0–1 Vardar Negotino

Vardar Negotino beat Kozuv Gevgelija 1-0 in Second League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kožuf in Gevgelija.