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Vardar Negotino vs Detonit Plachkovica — Second League 2019

Vardar Negotino
Vardar Negotino
FT
2 – 0
Detonit Plachkovica
Detonit Plachkovica
2/17/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 16Cvaj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vardar Negotino31%
×Draw27%
Detonit Plachkovica43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Negotino
1.13
Detonit Plachkovica
1.39

Detonit Plachkovica creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Vardar Negotino
1.11
Detonit Plachkovica
1.33

allows per match

Vardar Negotino
1.44
Detonit Plachkovica
1.15

finishing

Vardar Negotino+0.00on par
Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Negotino ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vardar Negotino or draw
57%
Vardar Negotino or Detonit Plachkovica
73%
Draw or Detonit Plachkovica
69%

Winning margin

Vardar Negotino wins by 2+
12%
Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vardar Negotino 1+ goals
68%
Vardar Negotino 2+ goals
31%
Vardar Negotino 3+ goals
11%
Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals
75%
Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals
40%
Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)
42%
Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Negotino at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Negotino attack 1.11 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.33 + Vardar Negotino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vardar Negotino scores more
31%
level
27%
Detonit Plachkovica scores more
43%

Detonit Plachkovica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Detonit Plachkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Vardar Negotino 2–0 Detonit Plachkovica

Vardar Negotino beat Detonit Plachkovica 2-0 in Second League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Cvaj Arena in Negotino.