Detonit Plachkovica 1–1 Vardar Negotino

Detonit Plachkovica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vardar Negotino

10/6/2024

Second League · Round 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Detonit Plachkovica63%

×Draw20%

Vardar Negotino17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Detonit PlachkovicaExpected goals in this matchVardar Negotino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.97

Detonit Plachkovica

2.10

Vardar Negotino

0.97

Detonit Plachkovica creates 116% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

1.59

creates per match

1.24

0.71

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Detonit Plachkovica

1.59

Vardar Negotino

1.24

allows per match

Detonit Plachkovica

0.71

Vardar Negotino

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Detonit Plachkovica ↓

Vardar Negotino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Detonit Plachkovica or draw

83%

Detonit Plachkovica or Vardar Negotino

80%

Draw or Vardar Negotino

37%

Winning margin

Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+

39%

Vardar Negotino wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals

88%

Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals

62%

Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals

35%

Vardar Negotino 1+ goals

62%

Vardar Negotino 2+ goals

25%

Vardar Negotino 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)

79%

Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Detonit Plachkovica at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.71 · 59 matches

Vardar Negotino away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.59 + Vardar Negotino defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.10

Vardar Negotino attack 1.24 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Detonit Plachkovica scores more

63%

level

20%

Vardar Negotino scores more

17%

Detonit Plachkovica at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Detonit Plachkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff