Vardar Negotino 0–1 Besa Dobërdoll: Result & Stats

Vardar Negotino

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Besa Dobërdoll

4/6/2024

Second League · Round 23Cvaj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vardar Negotino24%

×Draw26%

Besa Dobërdoll51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar NegotinoExpected goals in this matchBesa Dobërdoll

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.55

Vardar Negotino

0.97

Besa Dobërdoll

1.55

Besa Dobërdoll creates 60% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.11

creates per match

1.67

1.44

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Vardar Negotino

1.11

Besa Dobërdoll

1.67

allows per match

Vardar Negotino

1.44

Besa Dobërdoll

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Negotino ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vardar Negotino or draw

49%

Vardar Negotino or Besa Dobërdoll

74%

Draw or Besa Dobërdoll

76%

Winning margin

Vardar Negotino wins by 2+

8%

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Vardar Negotino 1+ goals

62%

Vardar Negotino 2+ goals

25%

Vardar Negotino 3+ goals

7%

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals

79%

Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals

46%

Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)

32%

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Negotino at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Negotino attack 1.11 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.67 + Vardar Negotino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vardar Negotino scores more

24%

level

26%

Besa Dobërdoll scores more

51%

Besa Dobërdoll at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff