Besa Dobërdoll 4–1 Vardar Negotino: Result & Stats

Besa Dobërdoll

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Vardar Negotino

10/8/2023

Second League · Round 8Stadion Vrapčište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll71%

×Draw17%

Vardar Negotino12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Besa DobërdollExpected goals in this matchVardar Negotino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.87

Besa Dobërdoll

2.38

Vardar Negotino

0.87

Besa Dobërdoll creates 174% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

2.17

creates per match

1.24

0.50

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll

2.17

Vardar Negotino

1.24

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll

0.50

Vardar Negotino

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Vardar Negotino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw

88%

Besa Dobërdoll or Vardar Negotino

83%

Draw or Vardar Negotino

29%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+

48%

Vardar Negotino wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals

91%

Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals

68%

Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals

42%

Vardar Negotino 1+ goals

58%

Vardar Negotino 2+ goals

22%

Vardar Negotino 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)

85%

Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 30 matches

Vardar Negotino away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 2.17 + Vardar Negotino defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.38

Vardar Negotino attack 1.24 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more

71%

level

17%

Vardar Negotino scores more

12%

Besa Dobërdoll at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff