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Vardar Forino vs Kadino — Second League 2019

Vardar Forino
Vardar Forino
FT
3 – 0
Kadino
Kadino
9/1/2019Second LeagueSecond League · West - 2Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vardar Forino53%
×Draw24%
Kadino24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Forino
1.71
Kadino
1.06

Vardar Forino creates 61% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Vardar Forino
1.65
Kadino
0.71

allows per match

Vardar Forino
1.41
Kadino
1.76

finishing

Vardar Forino+0.00on par
Kadino+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Forino ↓

Kadino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vardar Forino or draw
76%
Vardar Forino or Kadino
76%
Draw or Kadino
47%

Winning margin

Vardar Forino wins by 2+
29%
Kadino wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vardar Forino 1+ goals
82%
Vardar Forino 2+ goals
51%
Vardar Forino 3+ goals
24%
Kadino 1+ goals
65%
Kadino 2+ goals
29%
Kadino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vardar Forino (draw refunded)
69%
Kadino (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Forino at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Kadino away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Forino attack 1.65 + Kadino defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kadino attack 0.71 + Vardar Forino defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vardar Forino scores more
53%
level
24%
Kadino scores more
24%

Vardar Forino at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vardar Forino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Vardar Forino 3–0 Kadino

Vardar Forino beat Kadino 3-0 in Second League on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.