Kadino 1–1 Vardar Forino: Result & Stats

Kadino

FT

1 – 1

Vardar Forino

11/28/2020

Second League · West - 14Teren FK Kadino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kadino55%

×Draw26%

Vardar Forino19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KadinoExpected goals in this matchVardar Forino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.77

Kadino

1.50

Vardar Forino

0.77

Kadino creates 95% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

1.19

creates per match

0.63

0.90

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Kadino

1.19

Vardar Forino

0.63

allows per match

Kadino

0.90

Vardar Forino

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kadino+0.00on par

Vardar Forino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kadino ↓

Vardar Forino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kadino or draw

81%

Kadino or Vardar Forino

74%

Draw or Vardar Forino

45%

Winning margin

Kadino wins by 2+

28%

Vardar Forino wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kadino 1+ goals

78%

Kadino 2+ goals

44%

Kadino 3+ goals

19%

Vardar Forino 1+ goals

54%

Vardar Forino 2+ goals

18%

Vardar Forino 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kadino (draw refunded)

74%

Vardar Forino (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kadino at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Vardar Forino away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kadino attack 1.19 + Vardar Forino defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vardar Forino attack 0.63 + Kadino defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kadino scores more

55%

level

26%

Vardar Forino scores more

19%

Kadino at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kadino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff