Vard 2–2 Sandnes ULF: Result & Stats

Vard

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sandnes ULF

S. Helgesen 90'

A. Eide 59'

J. Tromsdal 90'

H. Jensen 69'

6/7/2025

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vard34%

×Draw21%

Sandnes ULF45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VardExpected goals in this matchSandnes ULF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.04

Vard

1.77

Sandnes ULF

2.04

Sandnes ULF creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 13 away

1.76

creates per match

2.46

1.61

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Vard

1.76

Sandnes ULF

2.46

allows per match

Vard

1.61

Sandnes ULF

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vard+0.00on par

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vard ↓

Sandnes ULF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Vard or draw

55%

Vard or Sandnes ULF

79%

Draw or Sandnes ULF

66%

Winning margin

Vard wins by 2+

17%

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Vard 1+ goals

83%

Vard 2+ goals

53%

Vard 3+ goals

26%

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals

87%

Sandnes ULF 2+ goals

60%

Sandnes ULF 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Vard (draw refunded)

43%

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vard at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Sandnes ULF away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vard attack 1.76 + Sandnes ULF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sandnes ULF attack 2.46 + Vard defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vard scores more

34%

level

21%

Sandnes ULF scores more

45%

Sandnes ULF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sandnes ULF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

22'

59'

62'

63'

69'

73'

M. Tjoland← T. Dvergsdal

75'

E. Berland← A. Nyhagen

78'

M. Tjoland

84'

J. Jonassen← P. Banda

84'

S. Lille-Lovo← D. Osdautaj

90'

K. Apeland

90'

J. Tromsdal

90'

S. Helgesen

Vard

Sandnes

1

Falch

3

Berger

4

▼

Gayi

17

▼

Nyhagen

18

Bruseth

6

⚽

8

10

11

9

20

▼

Aune

1

Strand

3

⚽

Helgesen

5

Helgesen

6

▼

Banda

21

Jensen

8

Bjornebye

18

▼

Hauge

19

⚽

Eide

11

▼

Dvergsdal

14

▼

Osdautaj

17

Apeland

Manager: K. Fosen

62'▲M. Eikje←▼A. Hauge

73'▲M. Tjoland←▼T. Dvergsdal

84'▲J. Jonassen←▼P. Banda

84'▲S. Lille-Lovo←▼D. Osdautaj

Vard substitutes

24Emberland4Jonassen10Lille-Lovo15Eriksen16Osdautaj22Tjoland23Eikje

Manager: A. Cleveland

22'▲T. Haland←▼E. Gayi

63'▲H. Jensen←▼J. Aune

75'▲E. Berland←▼A. Nyhagen

Sandnes ULF substitutes

13Sola14Brandeggen15Jensen21Haland23Berland28Bertelsen31Arsvoll