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Sandnes ULF vs Vard — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sandnes ULF
Sandnes ULF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vard
Vard
O. Sundgot 42'
A. Eide 85'
S. Lille-Lovo 47'
3/8/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Øster Hus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sandnes ULF47%
×Draw20%
Vard33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandnes ULF
2.25
Vard
1.87

Sandnes ULF creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sandnes ULF
1.69
Vard
1.82

allows per match

Sandnes ULF
1.92
Vard
2.82

finishing

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par
Vard+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 78Under: 2278%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 76No: 2476%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes ULF ↓

Vard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Sandnes ULF or draw
67%
Sandnes ULF or Vard
80%
Draw or Vard
53%

Winning margin

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+
28%
Vard wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals
89%
Sandnes ULF 2+ goals
65%
Sandnes ULF 3+ goals
39%
Vard 1+ goals
85%
Vard 2+ goals
56%
Vard 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)
59%
Vard (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes ULF at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Vard away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes ULF attack 1.69 + Vard defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.25

Vard attack 1.82 + Sandnes ULF defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sandnes ULF scores more
47%
level
20%
Vard scores more
33%

Sandnes ULF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sandnes ULF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
O. Sundgot
47'
S. Lille-Lovo
50'
85'
A. Eide
Sandnes
Vard
A. Cleveland
Manager: A. Cleveland
K. Fosen
Manager: K. Fosen

Friendlies Clubs: Sandnes ULF 1–2 Vard

Vard beat Sandnes ULF 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on March 8, 2025.

Goals: O. Sundgot (42'), S. Lille-Lovo (47'), A. Eide (85').

The match was played at Øster Hus Arena in Sandnes.