Varbergs BoIS FC 1–0 Vasteras SK FK: Result & Stats

Varbergs BoIS FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vasteras SK FK

J. Jonasson Westermark 51'

6/15/2025

Superettan · Round 12Paskbergsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC42%

×Draw25%

Vasteras SK FK33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varbergs BoIS FCExpected goals in this matchVasteras SK FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.27

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.47

Vasteras SK FK

1.27

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 90 away

1.56

creates per match

1.36

1.17

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.56

Vasteras SK FK

1.36

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.17

Vasteras SK FK

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Vasteras SK FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw

67%

Varbergs BoIS FC or Vasteras SK FK

75%

Draw or Vasteras SK FK

58%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

20%

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

77%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

43%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

18%

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

72%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

36%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

56%

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 70 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.56 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.36 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

42%

level

25%

Vasteras SK FK scores more

33%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

F. Andersson

Varbergs BoIS FC · G

7.5

Match Events

18'

Mamadou Diagne

29'

Jesper Jonasson Westermark

29'

Albin Winbo

39'

B. Vilar← F. Nsabiyumva

41'

Niklas Dahlström

42'

Karl Gunnarsson

51'

J. Jonasson Westermark

70'

I. Vidjeskog← A. Winbo

73'

H. Magnusson← T. Hartzell

73'

P. Ribeiro← K. Gunnarsson

73'

S. Gefvert← V. Wernersson

80'

K. Appiah Nyarko← L. Shabani

80'

M. Tokich← O. Edlund

82'

Max Larsson

88'

J. Magnusson← M. Diagne

90'

L. Olausson← J. Jonasson Westermark

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VarbergsVasteras

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots9

0.62Expected Goals (xG)0.69

6Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots9

2On Target3

4Off Target3

6Blocked3

5Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

316Total Passes314

223Accurate Passes237

71%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides0