Vasteras SK FK 1–2 Varbergs BoIS FC: Result & Stats

Vasteras SK FK

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Varbergs BoIS FC

B. Ljevar 10'

A. Seljmani 55'

R. Book 26'

5/4/2019

Superettan · Round 6Solid Park Arena (Västerås)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Vasteras SK FK45%

×Draw24%

Varbergs BoIS FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasteras SK FKExpected goals in this matchVarbergs BoIS FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.35

Vasteras SK FK

1.65

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.35

Vasteras SK FK creates 22% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 67 away

1.72

creates per match

1.57

1.14

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.72

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.57

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.14

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw

69%

Vasteras SK FK or Varbergs BoIS FC

76%

Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC

55%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

23%

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

81%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

49%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

23%

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

74%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

39%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

59%

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.72 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.65

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.57 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more

45%

level

24%

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

31%

Vasteras SK FK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

26'

49'

55'

65'

E. Skogh← B. Span

74'

D. Persson

77'

D. Karlberg← K. Safari

81'

83'

86'

88'

90+1'

Vasteras

Varbergs

1

3

2

8

18

10

⚽

Book

11

Girmai

42

▼

Ayer

7

▼

Beqaj

9

⚽

Seljmani

30

▼

1

15

2

5

3

16

⚽

▼

23

6

8

10

▼

Safari

14

▼

Span

Manager: T. Gabrielsson

65'▲E. Skogh←▼B. Span

77'▲D. Karlberg←▼K. Safari

83'▲E. Smajic←▼B. Ljevar

Vasteras SK FK substitutes

21Skogh19Karlberg9Smajic4Sabetkar13Svensson18Ottosson22Holm

Manager: J. Persson

81'▲S. Möller←▼K. Ayer

88'▲P. Ljung←▼D. Krezic

90+1'▲E. Sadiku←▼P. Beqaj

Varbergs BoIS FC substitutes

5Möller6Ljung28Sadiku12Asaad17Lugonjic21Zetterberg33Svensson

Superettan: Vasteras SK FK 1–2 Varbergs BoIS FC

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 in Superettan on May 4, 2019.

Goals: B. Ljevar (10'), R. Book (26'), A. Seljmani (55').

The match was played at Solid Park Arena (Västerås).

Vasteras SK FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Superettan: Vasteras SK FK 1–2 Varbergs BoIS FC