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Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg — Superettan 2018

Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
9/20/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 23Paskbergsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC49%
×Draw24%
Trelleborg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.65
Trelleborg
1.15

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 110 away

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.58
Trelleborg
1.15

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.16
Trelleborg
1.72

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw
73%
Varbergs BoIS FC or Trelleborg
76%
Draw or Trelleborg
51%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
26%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
81%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
49%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
23%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
68%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
32%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
65%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.58 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Trelleborg attack 1.15 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
49%
level
24%
Trelleborg scores more
27%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Varbergs BoIS FC 3–1 Trelleborg

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Trelleborg 3-1 in Superettan on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Paskbergsvallen in Varberg.