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Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Superettan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
4/27/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 5Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Trelleborg38%
×Draw25%
Varbergs BoIS FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.45
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 66 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.31
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.58

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.26
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.59

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
63%
Trelleborg or Varbergs BoIS FC
75%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
62%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
18%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
77%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
42%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
18%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
76%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
41%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
51%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.58 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Trelleborg scores more
38%
level
25%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
37%

Trelleborg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trelleborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Trelleborg 4-0 in Superettan on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.