Varbergs BoIS FC 5–0 Syrianska FC: Result & Stats

Varbergs BoIS FC

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Syrianska FC

9/21/2019

Superettan · Round 24Påskbergsvallen (Varberg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC56%

×Draw23%

Syrianska FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varbergs BoIS FCExpected goals in this matchSyrianska FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.01

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.79

Syrianska FC

1.01

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 77% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

1.58

creates per match

0.87

1.16

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.58

Syrianska FC

0.87

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.16

Syrianska FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Syrianska FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw

79%

Varbergs BoIS FC or Syrianska FC

77%

Draw or Syrianska FC

44%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

31%

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

83%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

53%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

26%

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

64%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

27%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

72%

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.16 · 69 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.58 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Syrianska FC attack 0.87 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

56%

level

23%

Syrianska FC scores more

21%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff