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Syrianska FC vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Superettan 2018

Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
4/14/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 3Södertälje Fotbollsarena (Södertälje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Syrianska FC29%
×Draw23%
Varbergs BoIS FC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syrianska FC
1.33
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.79

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

creates per match

Syrianska FC
1.07
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.58

allows per match

Syrianska FC
2.00
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.59

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw
52%
Syrianska FC or Varbergs BoIS FC
77%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
71%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+
12%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals
74%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
38%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
15%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
83%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
53%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
37%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.07 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.58 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Syrianska FC scores more
29%
level
23%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
48%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syrianska FC vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Syrianska FC 5-1 in Superettan on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena (Södertälje).