Varbergs BoIS FC 1–3 IFK Norrkoping: Result & Stats

Varbergs BoIS FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

IFK Norrkoping

5/13/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 8Varberg Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC34%

×Draw25%

IFK Norrkoping41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varbergs BoIS FCExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.48

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.33

IFK Norrkoping

1.48

IFK Norrkoping creates 11% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 122 away

1.10

creates per match

1.40

1.56

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.10

IFK Norrkoping

1.40

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.56

IFK Norrkoping

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw

59%

Varbergs BoIS FC or IFK Norrkoping

75%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

66%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

15%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

74%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

38%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

15%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

77%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

43%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

45%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.10 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.40 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

34%

level

25%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

41%

IFK Norrkoping at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff