IFK Norrkoping 4–3 Varbergs BoIS FC: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Varbergs BoIS FC

11/6/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 29PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IFK Norrkoping49%

×Draw24%

Varbergs BoIS FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchVarbergs BoIS FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.23

IFK Norrkoping

1.75

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.23

IFK Norrkoping creates 42% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 61 away

1.66

creates per match

1.21

1.26

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.66

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.21

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.26

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

73%

IFK Norrkoping or Varbergs BoIS FC

76%

Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC

51%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

27%

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

83%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

52%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

25%

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

71%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

35%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

65%

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.26 · 122 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.85 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.66 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.21 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

49%

level

24%

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

27%

IFK Norrkoping at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff