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Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg — Allsvenskan 2026

Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
8/8/2022AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 17Varberg Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC35%
×Draw26%
IFK Goteborg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.31
IFK Goteborg
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 128 away

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.10
IFK Goteborg
1.28

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.56
IFK Goteborg
1.52

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw
60%
Varbergs BoIS FC or IFK Goteborg
74%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
65%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
15%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
73%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
38%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
14%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
76%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
41%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
47%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.10 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

IFK Goteborg attack 1.28 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
35%
level
26%
IFK Goteborg scores more
40%

IFK Goteborg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varbergs BoIS FC vs IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg beat Varbergs BoIS FC 4-0 in Allsvenskan on August 8, 2022.

The match was played at Varberg Energi Arena in Varberg.