IFK Goteborg 1–2 Varbergs BoIS FC: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Varbergs BoIS FC

8/23/2021

Allsvenskan · Round 16Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IFK Goteborg45%

×Draw25%

Varbergs BoIS FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchVarbergs BoIS FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.21

IFK Goteborg

1.56

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.21

IFK Goteborg creates 29% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 61 away

1.28

creates per match

1.21

1.20

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.28

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.21

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

1.20

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

70%

IFK Goteborg or Varbergs BoIS FC

75%

Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC

55%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

23%

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

79%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

46%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

21%

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

70%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

34%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

61%

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 127 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.85 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.28 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.21 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

45%

level

25%

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

30%

IFK Goteborg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff